Please join us for a RACC Seminar with David Seekell, Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia.
Date: Friday October 14th at 4pm.
Location 80 Colchester Ave.
Abstract:
Regime shifts are massive, sometimes irreversible, changes in feedback processes that occur when complex systems pass tipping points. Regime shifts are ubiquitous in nature and may have severe consequences for human wellbeing. Examples of regime shifts include eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and fisheries collapses. Theoretical evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert unwanted change. I review conditions where regime shifts can be foreseen by early warning statistics and provide evidence of the efficacy of these statistics based on a whole-ecosystem regime shift experiment.