Measuring The Climate Change Impact on Water Quality Using a Weather Generator Pegasus Workflow

In continuation of the ongoing efforts to understanding the climate change impact on Lake Champlain basin, we present the current status: Our previous efforts have successfully linked human and natural system with climate-change and human drivers using Integrated Assessment Model, for basin management. Using Pegasus, a Scientific Workflow Management System, we were to integrate the following models: (1) Climate projections for daily precipitation and temperature are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution from global climate models (GCMs), (2) A Landuse transition agent-based model component (ILUTABM) that simulates heterogeneity in landuse decisions at parcel levels, (3) A Watershed Hydrology component to simulate the physical impact of climate and landuse using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), (4) Coupled 3-D hydrodynamic and water quality model (EFDC-RCA). This workflow, however, lacks the study of direct impact of climate change on Lake Champlain and how this can in turn affect the landuse transition around the lake. Our current efforts have bridged this gap by incorporating a weather generator model that generates lake variables from the current climate data models. This tool, also known as (WG), is based on vector-autoregressive process, which has produced promising results for Lake Constance.