Multi-Scale Modeling of Land-Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) in Social Ecological Systems: An Agent Based Model of Missisquoi Watershed in the Lake Champlain Basin, 2000‐2100


TitleMulti-Scale Modeling of Land-Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) in Social Ecological Systems: An Agent Based Model of Missisquoi Watershed in the Lake Champlain Basin, 2000‐2100
Publication TypeConference Paper and Presentation
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsZia, A, Tsai, Y-S, Turnbull, S, Koliba, C
Conference Name2016 Nairobi Conference on Earth System Governance
Date Published2016/12
PublisherEarth System Governance
Conference LocationNairobi, Kenya
Abstract

Agent‐Based Models (ABMs) of LULCC provide a bottom‐up scalable approach to simulate emergent landscapes that arise out of complex interactions in Social Ecological Systems. While many ABMs have been developed that simulate LULCC within agriculture, urban or forest sectors, very few ABMs simulate LULCC across agriculture, forest and urban landscapes. In this paper, we present experimental simulations from a novel ABM that is programmed to simulate Rural‐Urban‐Forest Interface through explicitly modeling
interactions among multiple agents (farmers, urban residences, urban businesses, local towns, state and federal agencies) and between bounded‐rational agents and eco‐system services generated by agricultural, forested and urban landscapes. The ABM simulates 30m x 30m LULCC in fifteen land‐use classifications consistent with National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other remote sensing databases. We present experimental simulations that
simultaneously test the affect of retaining and alternating current land‐use policies designed and implemented across multi‐level governance scales, such as forest conservation policies, agricultural subsidies and urbanization growth rates. Alternate behavioral assumptions drawn from farmer surveys and controlled laboratory games are also tested. The ABM is applied to simulate rural‐urban‐forest interface in the Missisquoi watershed of Lake Champlain Basin, initialized with remotely sensed NLCD and parcel data in 2000‐1, evolving at annual time‐step to 2100. NLCD 2011 data is used to calibrate the baseline simulation run. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are undertaken to test the affects of modifying land-use
policies by local towns, regional planning commissions and state & federal government agencies regulating water quality and economic development in the focal watershed. This multi‐scale ABM provides a policy analytics platform for watershed managers, policy makers
and scientists to examine the affects of alternate policy and behavioral response regimes on the evolution of LULCC in Social Ecological Systems. The ABM is generalizable and can be replicated in other watershed settings and Social Ecological Systems, where remote sensing, parcel and census databases are available. In addition, this ABM can be coupled with hydrometeorological and hydro‐dynamic models to simulate the effects of nutrient run‐offs on
water quality under alternate policy and land use planning regimes.

URLhttp://earthsystemgovernance.net/nairobi2016/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Nairobi-Conference_Panels_20161130.pdf
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Published
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BREE
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Acknowledged VT EPSCoR: 
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2nd Attributable Grant: 
RACC
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