How Equitable are CO2 Emissions Entitlements in the Paris Agreement? Evaluation of “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” Versus CO2 Per Capita for a 2C Global Carbon Budget and Global Carbon Trading Mechanism

While the landmark Paris agreement negotiated by 195 countries under the auspices of UNFCCC COP21 meeting provides a bottom‐up voluntary framework for nation‐states to commit to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions through so‐called “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs), these commitments do not necessarily appear to be equitable in terms of allocation of CO2 emission entitlements in the global atmospheric commons. Although Paris Agreement stipulates measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments on a “common but differentiated” basis, the INDCs submitted by the nation states are symptomatic of “grandfathering” decision heuristic, i.e. high emitters like US and oil producing countries will gain a substantially large allocation in the global carbon budget determined through running 2C above pre‐industrial policy target in Global Circulation Models. The equity implications of Paris Agreement can be determined by comparing the nationally reported INDCs versus a CO2 per capita principle to allocate carbon emission allowances across the nation states. This study undertakes a comparative analysis of CO2 emission allowances that will be available to each country of the world under Paris agreement negotiated “grandfathered” INDCs and CO2 per capita decision heuristic for assessing the equity implications of the emerging international climate policy under the Paris agreement. A new global carbon trading mechanism will be proposed to “equitably” share the global atmospheric common by enabling a UNFCCC mandated
transfer of carbon credits from the countries that claim more than their fair share of GHG entitlements to the countries that can avoid GHG emissions by purchasing these carbon credits. The $100 billion/year floor for financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries, established under the green climate fund and adaptation fund mechanisms of Paris Agreement, will be compared with the “equitable” share of financial transfers under a 2C global carbon budget allocation on CO2 per capita basis.