2015 Mediated Modeling Workshop

Mediated Modeling Workshop
For invited guests.
October 26th, 2015
Davis Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT
8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
A day long workshop linking science, planning and policy
Workshop Overview

Workshop Summary:
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Lake Champlain Basin:
Generating Integrated Assessment Modeling Scenarios from the Interaction of Climate Change, Land-Use Change, Hydrology and Lake Biogeochemistry
Workshop Overview:
While the recent focus on Vermont's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plan has brought attention to a variety of planning, policy and engineering strategies to mitigate the nutrient loads in the Lake Champlain Basin (LCB), the ultimate success of these revised policies in mitigating the phosphorus concentrations and harmful algae blooms (HAB) likelihood in segments of Lake Champlain, is also contingent upon the likelihood of worst-case climate change scenarios during the remainder of the 21st century. Foremost among those strategies to simulate these potential scenarios, is the use of calibrated computer simulation models of watershed dynamics. For the LCB, such models have been used to determine TMDL levels, and to identify best management practices. In this workshop, these and a new integrated assessment model (IAM) being developed by researchers from the Research on Adaptation to Climate Change Project, will serve as a focus on the current state of using these and other models for adaptive management purposes.
Workshop participants will include planners, scientists and policy makers with roles to play in the utilization of models and other sources of scientific data to anticipate hydrological; terrestrial; human-behavioral and societal-responses to climate change; economic dynamics; zoning and regulatory responses; and market incentive systems.
The workshop will be divided into three segments:
  1. State of the Current RACC IAM: Workshop participants will be apprised of the current status of the Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC's) Integrated Assessment Model (IAM). This IAM includes a large ensemble of high resolution (0.8KMx0.8KM) temperature and precipitation forecasts for LCB under different global climate change realization scenarios, a variety of high resolution (30Mx30M) land use land cover change scenarios for Missisquoi watershed, detailed hydrological response of the watershed to these climatic and land-use conditions, and the dynamic loading of nutrients in the Missisquoi Bay with the underlying biogeochemistry of algal bloom formation and timing.
  2. Assessment of the Current Suite of Models, Both Current and Planned for the LCB: During the workshop the current capacities, limitations and possible future extensions of the IAM will be discussed in the context of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Bathtub Lake and Excel-based decision support tools that are being used by EPA, state agencies and regional commissions and local towns for informing the TMDL revision process. Points of synergy and differences between the range of modeling approaches being employed in the Lake Champlain Basin will be explored to inform a gap analysis concerning what is missing from the current and planned models in the region for tackling the climate change risk.
  3. Climate Change Scenario Development for the LCB: Participants will engage in the assessment and evaluation of various climate change and land-use change scenarios in the light of their projected impacts on the watershed and lake systems. Finally, an interactive activity will lead to the design of a suite of adaptive management intervention scenarios that could be simulated in the next (Spring 2016) version of the RACC IAM.
Workshop Logistics:
Parking, a light breakfast, refreshments and lunch will be provided. There is no charge. This workshop is by invitation. If you wish to designate someone else to take your place, please have them register directly. If you have other people to suggest to be invited to the workshop, please let us know and we will extend an invitation if there is space available.
For more information regarding the event please contact:
Christopher Koliba at ckoliba@uvm.edu; 802-656-3772 or
Sarah Coleman at scoleman@uvm.edu