Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission

A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death.

The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima.

High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing students who can think long-term, better understand feedbacks, and anticipate unexpected consequences associated with non-linear systems. This case study enables high school teachers to incorporate ongoing research, systems modeling, and engineering design, three core goals Next Generation Science Standards and STEM initiatives.