Modeling Extreme Event Preparedness and Regulator Feedback in the Missisquoi Bay Area of Vermont

Over the next century, projected climatological changes are expected to drastically alter the weather patterns of Vermont. Combined with human-led changes to land-use and an expected increase in development in the region, the future health of the ecosystems of Lake Champlain remains unclear. As part of an effort to generate a comprehensive integrated assessment model for the Lake Champlain Basin, I have worked to develop a model exploring potential changes in human-decision making under a variety of climatological, environmental, and economical scenarios, particularly the behavior of farmers in the Missisquoi Bay Area and their relationship to a municipal regulatory agent trying to mitigate the potential effects of their behavior on the lake ecosystem. This poster will discuss the results of running this model under some of these projected scenarios and an early analysis of those results.