Hydrology on high: Assessing the effect of ski resort expansion and changing climate at the Mount Mansfield paired‐catchment study in Vermont,

A paired-catchment study began in 2000 to assess the hydrologic effects of high-elevation development on Mt. Mansfield, Vermont's highest summit (1340 m). West Branch Little River drains 12.08 km2 and encompasses a large ski resort. Adjacent Ranch Brook drains 9.83 km2 of minimally disturbed second-growth forest. The two catchments have similar elevation, aspect, surficial and bedrock geology, and vegetation. The resort was well established before this study, but it underwent a major expansion during the period 2004–2008. The expansion included new ski lifts and trails, a large hotel, roads and second home development, a 435 000-m3 snowmaking storage pond and a nine-hole golf course, increasing the extent of cleared/open land from 17% to 24%. Runoff from the developed West Branch Little River catchment was 21% greater than Ranch Brook over the duration of the study, but varied widely each year from 10% to 42%. This high variability occurs both on the interannual and individual storm scales, and is consistent with expectations from future climate projections. Hydrologic variability is on the rise, as shown by an increase in stream flashiness in both catchments over the 20 years of our study. Resort expansion, which provided for stormwater management, had no discernible effect on the overall runoff difference nor the flow distribution at the scale of the catchments, but sedimentation, water quality impacts and localized erosion cannot be ruled out. Forest clearing, impervious and hardened surfaces, and skier-compacted and machine-made snow may all cause enhanced runoff. However, the greater runoff at West Branch, which occurs primarily during snowmelt and summer, may arise partly from greater precipitation capture in the complex mountain topography. Development pressure on the mountain landscape continues to mount, but managers may also need to consider the confounding effects of a changing climate.